ON PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF'S FINAL DEPARTURE





It would have been an obituary worthy of a Caesar – had it not been an assassinated Julius Caesar reading it. President General Musharraf's farewell address to his fellow-countrymen on 17th August followed the same format as his first broadcast to the nation after taking over in October 1999.


Then he spoke of what he intended to do for his country; now, he recounted all that he had done during his nine years of Caesarian administration and his legacies to them. "I don't need anything from anybody…I leave my future in the hands of the people. Let them be the judges and let them do justice."


His recognition of 'the people' as the final arbiter of his reputation was ironical, for it was the very representatives of the people – the four provincial Assemblies – who voted almost overwhelmingly if not unanimously for his impeachment. Those more qualified to sit in judgment were still awaiting reinstatement.


Musharraf has gone and left baser elements behind him. Those who had united to oust him – the PPP controlled but not led by Asif Zardari and the PML (N) led and controlled by Mian Nawaz Sharif – have begun a race to see who can last in government and who can survive in opposition.


Asif Zardari's assets in Pakistan are the Bhutto name, a compliant PPP still responsive to the memory of Benazir Bhutto, and a vacuous opposition; Nawaz Sharif's outside Pakistan are the House of Saud. They stood by him during the economic fallout following Pakistan's nuclear tests at Chagai in May 1998, a year later they hosted him after he was ousted and then banished by Musharraf, they received him like a returning Prodigal Son in September 2007, and most recently brokered Musharraf's escape from impeachment by his detractors led by Nawaz Sharif.


Saudi Arabia's support for Pakistan is more than 'a family affair', an expression used by Riyadh Al-Khatib, Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan in the late 1970s. (He had been the dishonest broker between an embattled Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and the opposition right-wing MMA, that led to Bhutto banning alcohol, the Ahmedis as apostates, and Friday a public holiday.) They have embraced every Pakistani leader whether in uniform or in civvies – everyone except Benazir Bhutto, who they preferred to keep at arms-length. It is interesting that when it was her turn, she sought refuge in Dubai, not Saudi Arabia.


The latest intervention by the Saudi intelligence chief Prince Miqren bin Abdul Aziz is more than a maudlin concern for Pakistan's 'family' squabbles. It has deeper connections, like the $5 billion worth of crude oil which they have provided on concessional terms to keep Pakistan's economy afloat. The Saudis have funded Pakistan in ways that defy revelation. One will never hear a Saudi admit, as the US has done to its legislators, that out of the $10 bn remitted to Islamabad since 2001, almost $6 bn has been used for Coalition Support Funds, $1.8 bn towards security assistance, $1.62 bn applied towards shoring up Pakistan's economy, and only 9% ($0.9 bn) used for development and humanitarian assistance.


If the Gulf Arabs once thought of Pakistan as a playground (before they discovered Mumbai, and the West), and the US used Pakistan as a bulwark against Communism and then an reliable ally in its War against its own definition of Terror, the Saudis regard Pakistan a religious test-tube in which to conduct combustible experiments they dare not attempt at home. Their support to the new Musharraf-less government will be all the more vital because they will have an ideological ally in Nawaz Sharif.


Now that the diseased tooth has been removed by the visiting Saudi dentist, the cavity has to be filled. Asif Zardari's nominees are predictable – himself, or his sister Dr Feryal Talpur or anyone other than Nawaz Sharif or Amin Fahim, so long as the power of the president under Article 58 (2)b to remove a government remains unamended. Mian Nawaz Sharif would be content with anyone except Asif Zardari.


The first test of their forced conjugality is the restoration of the judges. Nawaz Sharif says yesterday or at best today; Asif says tomorrow, better still never. The second will be the presidency. The third will be the economy. Neither of them understands it nor is equipped to steer it through the predictable typhoon ahead. Managing one's personal assets while in exile is not necessarily the best education for salvaging a failing national economy. A distant fourth but closer than they think is the US involvement in FATA and the simmering unrest in Balochistan.


Could a fledgling coalition ask for anything more?





[Dawn, 1 Sept. 08]