The General Elections of 2018 could be described as a midwife’s nightmare: conceived in darkness, delivered before dawn. It was to be expected that the result would be adopted by the winning party and disowned by the losers even before the christening. That is the accepted convention in Pakistan’s politics.
In 2013, PML-N won the election, and crowed. Imran Khan as the loser griped and groused but could obtain scant satisfaction either from the Election Commission or from the courts. This time, according to the unofficial results, Imran Khan’s PTI has won; his opponents are left to chafe and cavil. Five of the major parties have decided not to accept the election results, calling instead for joint action by an All Parties Conference. It is unlikely that they will succeed collectively when they have failed individually.
How did Imran Khan succeed? That was the question the English cricket team asked after itself after its defeat in the 1992 ICC Cricket World Cup. Now the question is: how could Imran Khan and his PTI team metamorphose itself from the underdog in 2013 to the top dog in 2018?
Remember: in 2013, the PTI obtained half the number of votes - PTI 7.7 million to PML-N’s 14.8 million, and only one fifth of the seats in the National Assembly - PTI 28 to PML-N’s 126. The PTI’s nearest rival - the Pakistan Peoples Party - secured 33 seats, 5 more than the PTI, but got fewer votes (6.9 million). And this was after five years (2008-13) of a PPP government under Asif Zardari’s presidency.
No one outside Pakistan and Myanmar can truly understand the subtle mathematics of a civil-military equation. No one outside these two countries can appreciate the sleight of hand with which Benazir was elected prime minster in 1988 and Aung San Suu Kyi appointed 1st State Councillor. Both were allowed to reign but not rule. The nearest equivalent in India was the Congress party during the Bharat regency of Sardar Manmohan Singh.
There are some who wonder why Nawaz Sharif forgot that lesson, especially when he was himself a by-product of that prickly, porcupine cohabitation. Did he feel despite his experience to the contrary that he had outgrown his mentor? He should have known better. He was expected to speak, not think, not act.
It is no secret that the path to the prime ministership in Pakistan is bulldozed before each election into a level playing field. One cannot think of a political leader who has not benefited from this assistance. There have even been allegations that the electoral process has been influenced by certain agencies. That is easier said than proven. Pakistan lacks the independent tenacity of a Robert Mueller who can ferret out interference by the Russians in favour of Donald Trump. It cannot hope to find evidence left behind by person who forgot to wear gloves. However, there are certain tell-tale indications of assistance by the courts and by other institutions that lubricated Imran Khan’s success.
Some question the impartiality of court decisions that could disqualify Nawaz Sharif and his family (except his brother Shahbaz Sharif) while letting others who committed graver infractions off the hook. Some wonder how the PTI managed to evade disclosure of its funding from foreign sources ‘until after the elections’.
That is now history, as is the conduct of the elections themselves. The Election Commission which should be scrutinizing the electoral process is instead itself under scrutiny. It cannot explain why the Result Transmission System (RTS) should have collapsed under the weight of ‘unexpectedly heavy demand’, requiring a reversion to manual counting. (Mr Rahul Gandhi would be well advised not to imitate our example and replace digital voting with paper forms.) At the time of writing, 18 hours after the polls closed, the Election Commission is still to announce the manually tabulated official results.
Provisional projections indicate that in the National Assembly, the PTI is likely to have about 111 seats out of the 270 contested (two will be fought over later). An impressive total, but not enough to form a government. It is not the absolute majority Imran Khan had hoped for, nor the one he would have been allowed.
To secure his prime ministership, therefore, Imran Khan will need to enter into a coalition with other parties or Independents. The PML with its 68 seats is out of the question. Sixteen or so Independents who were not considered important enough to be given tickets by parties may suddenly look desirable. Another option is a coalition with Bhutto-Zardari’s PPP. It will have 38 or so National Assembly seats. Or the bearded MMA with its 12? Will Imran Khan be amenable to such an arrangement? He may have to accept it, especially when it is a shotgun marriage.
In the Punjab, out of 297 seats, PML with 131 or so seats has a majority, but only just. Imran Khan is close behind with 124. He could conceivably negotiate with the 35 Independents and demand to form a government, leaving Shahbaz Sharif to swelter in the Opposition after 10 years as Punjab’s unicellular Chief Minister.
In Sindh, the PPP under Bhutto-Zardari retains its command. But just as the PPP over the years has been reduced to a provincial party in Sindh, Altaf Hussain’s faction-riven MQM has committed suicide, gaining only 18 pr so seats. In KPK, the PTI has secured 66 seats, a massive 50 more than its nearest rival.
Regardless of the suspicion of ‘interference’, these elections have in a sense been a replay of the 1970 elections. Then, Mr Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s nascent PPP swept the old order – the Mamdots, the Daultanas, the Khuhros – into oblivion. Now, leaders like Ch. Nisar (once Nawaz Sharif’s all powerful Minister of Interior) have been relegated. Disappointed opposition parties have until 2023 to reconcile to the unacceptable. Prime Minister Imran Khan meanwhile has the next five years, if one may borrow Dr Ishrat Husain’s memorable phrase, ‘to govern the ungovernable’.
Queen Victoria once lamented that the problems of life began with marriage. For Imran Khan, after three marriages, these elections are akin to a fourth. He is wedded to the expectations of 200 million Pakistanis to deliver a Naya Pakistan.
© F..S. AIJAZUDDIN
[The Tribune, Chandigarh, 27 July 2018]
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